日経平均7600円の時代

2008-10-17 (金)
- 素人思考

社会に出て働きだしてからずっと終電に乗ってきている。
なんだかんだ言って世間には暇な連中が多いのかどうかはわからないが、仕事に疲れた上に隣のオヤジから酒の匂いが漂ってくると猛烈に腹が立ってくる。
考えてみれば男性の酔っぱらいは高確率で遭遇するもの、女性の酔っぱらいにはほとんどお目にかからない世の中の不思議。

それはさておき。
酔っぱらい以上に絶望的な気分を味わせてくれるのが、人身事故。

週末金曜日の。しかも終電間際に。……なんということだ。

小田急線新宿駅
fig.新宿駅 大 混 乱

この光景を目の当たりにするたびに、絶望的な気分にさせられる。
虫の居所が悪いときには口汚く罵りたくもなる。人が死んでいるのに。そして自分はいつから死人に鞭打つ人間になってしまったのだろうと、 己の心の狭さに気付き愕然とする。

しかしここ1,2週間は人身事故のニュースを耳にすると、
(株の暴落で首が回らなくなって飛び込んだんじゃないだろうな……)
などと、別の心配をしてしまう。

ここ1,2週間で日経平均は爆下げも良いところ。ジリジリと回復傾向にあった日経平均株価は10,000円をあっと言う間に大きく割り込み、 まるで乱気流に翻弄される飛行機のように乱高下を繰り返している。
株をやったことがない私ですら心配になる。

昨日の株価は8,693.82円(前日比+235.37円)
いったい明日の株価はどうなるのか。もっと下がるのか、このまま8,000円台をジリジリと推移するのか……誰にも判らない。

そこでふと思った。

2003年4月28日。
日経平均は終値で7607.88円というバブル崩壊以降未曾有の底値をつけた日。当時はまったく経済に関心がなく「ふーん」とあっさりスルーしていたが、 それとなくただならぬ雰囲気は感じていた。
あれから約5年。
連日のように株価のニュースが報じられてはいるが、今ひとつ危機感がないのは私の思い過ごしだろうか。

いったいあの日と今は何が違うのか。
2ちゃんねるに興味深いスレッドがあったので、ここでご紹介させて頂きます。

日経平均7600円と今の違い 2

1 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 00:38:27 ID:wlGIkPGN

皆様お疲れ様です
相も変わらず散々な相場が続いている昨今 如何お過ごしでしょうか?
さて日経平均も10000円が割れたいまバブル崩壊最安値の7000円台が頭によぎります
そこで 皆様方のご意見をききたいと思います。
はたして日経平均は7000円台に向かうのか否か?
私はその7000円台の頃を全く知らないのでその頃と比べての違いや似ている箇所をよかったら 話をきかせてください

2 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 00:39:44 ID:wlGIkPGN

山師さん:2008/09/29(月) 20:01:27 ID:0kE+4GHz
当時の日本は不良債権問題の真っ最中。
みんなが疑心暗鬼になって底が見えない金融不安の中にいた。

今現在は、一応不良債権は片付いている。
金融不安が払拭された日本においてここまで株価が下がる理由はまったくない。
日経がここまで下がったのはすべて外部要因。

3 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 00:41:18 ID:wlGIkPGN

俺は2002年5月から株を始めた。
2002年後半~2003年3月くらいの頃はとにかく怖かった。
マジで日本がデフレ不況の底を抜けて恐慌になるんじゃないかと思った。
ニュースで竹中を見て発言を聞くたび、おまえは氏ね!と本気で思った。
2chの株関係のスレは、政府へ激怒したり罵倒したりする書き込みが多かったように記憶している。
人間本当に追い込まれて余裕がなくなると怒るんだなって思った。もちろん気持ちは良くわかった。
他にもシリアスなのや、悲痛なの、悟ったような諦めの書き込みも多くあったように思う。
でも茶化す気も起きなかったしそう書く奴もほとんどいなかったように記憶している。2chなのに。
逆に「お前ら死ぬな!頑張れ!」と本当に思った。
株を買ってる奴らが戦友のように感じた。

・・・とまあ青臭い初心者時代の話だけど、とにかく怖かったことだけは良く覚えている。
今は世界恐慌になるって人もいるけどあの頃に比べたら全然恐怖を感じねー。
外人がどう感じてるかは知らんけど、今の日本企業の体質ならまあ大丈夫じゃないのっつーかんじ。

4 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 00:42:35 ID:wlGIkPGN

あの当時とはまったく違うよ・・・

9.11で10000を割れて、不良債権問題で、メガバンが東京三菱以外はすべて倒産か!という雰囲気があった
雰囲気があったっつうか、UFJとみずほは、マジ潰れると思った りそなは潰れないのが不思議だった
地方銀行は、一部の優良以外は、マジで全部潰れると思った
証券会社も野村と大和以外はもたないだろうなぁという雰囲気があった

こいつらが潰れると、資金を受けれない企業が倒産 その連鎖倒産で、どれだけの企業が倒産するんだろうと
マジで怖かった。  さらには、相次ぐ航空機墜落、イラク戦争、東北地震、十勝沖地震、SARSやトリインフルエンザ、広末結婚と、次から次へ悪いニュースばっかで、どうしようもない状態だった

それを考えたら、今はたいしたことないよ。

20 :243:2008/10/13(月) 09:42:29 ID:JegRxYTl

>>4
仰る通りです。当時は周りにも此処が大底だなんて言ってる奴は皆無の恐怖感だった。
今回は良くも悪くも2003年から2007年迄のしょぼバブルの良い思い出だけを、皆が覚えていて屑株と言われた株が10倍20倍と成った事をイメージし2匹目の泥鰌を、 狙ってる様だが全く違うのがCDSや仕組債等の隠れた怪物が蠢いている事で当時の様に、ITバブル崩壊、9.11、等と米国が得意の似非愛国心を掲げて緑爺の強引な利下げと、 政府の歪んだ住宅政策を生んだが敵が解り易く今回と違い誰も反対する者等居なかった。
ITバブル全盛期にシラー教授が警鐘を鳴らすもニューエコノミー論なるトンデモを掲げ、今回も去年、デカップリング論なるトンデモを懲りもせず吹聴した株屋関係者には呆れる。
しかも今回は散々儲けた金融屋が余裕無く管理下に置かれ身動き出来ずヘッジファンドの幾つかも逝くと言われているのに誰がこれから買い上げて行くのか?株は需給が肝心だ。
仮に大底を打つにしても2003年でさえ底這いが一年も続いたが今回は火付け役の緑爺と焦って仕切るGS出身の金満禿が百年に一度とほざいてる割に世間の悲愴感が足りない。

5 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 00:46:00 ID:wlGIkPGN

:山師さん:2008/10/04(土) 13:51:37 ID:gjFp2Edv
当時は米国会計不信と代行返上、小泉竹中の株価に一喜一憂しない政策が功を奏し、株板の書き込みが恐ろしい程に少なくなり、買煽りラジオ日経出演の阿呆共が、 抗議を喰らった為か一斉に日本株割安論なる物を引っ込めた後にやっと底打ち、その後、緑爺がインチキ利下げを続け米国株は上昇に転じたが日本株が病み上り 状態で力弱く上がり始めたのはかなり後でその後も鍋底推移が一年以上続いた。
当時は現曲げ師武者が米国ITバブル崩壊、9.11後のインチキ政策を糾弾し、日経一万割れを一早く予言、サンプロで野村のリビジョンインデックス糞論者と 毎週の様にガチバトルを展開していた。現在CDS爆弾を抱え住宅バブルの火付け張本人の緑爺が百年に一度の危機とほざいてる割には世間の悲愴感が足りんのだよ

10 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 03:51:00 ID:f4mJ73ze

他スレで拾ったいい意見

352 山師さん sage New! 2008/10/13(月) 01:41:39 ID:W6y4+Sxj
サブプライム爆弾、CDS爆弾
まあ色々弱みはあるが、
アメリカ経済にとってラッキーなのは、
世界中のどこもがアメリカ経済に潰れてもらっては困ると考えていることだな


この何気ないレスは色々考えさせられる・・・
AIGにせよGMにせよ 何でもあまりに巨大になりすぎると 潰すに潰せない状況になる
これは非常に問題であるとおもう。
資本主義の常で必ず勝ち組・・・すなわち巨大企業が生まれるのは必然
そして もう一つの資本主義の常である弱肉強食の敗者は市場から消えていくのも必然である。
しかしそのガリバーゆえに それが敗者になっても潰せないというのは矛盾している。
今後この各ガリバー達は今回の件で救出されさらに ガリバーになっていくのなら
次も必ずこのような驕り・・モラルハザードからくる巨悪な事態に陥るとおもう。
これが資本主義の限界なのか?
せめて二大・・いや三大巨頭ぐらい あったほうがいいのかもしれん。


まあ この地球という星で最もガリバーなのはアメリカなんだけどね

11 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 04:31:38 ID:wDV3+/HB

昔の日本は株価をあまり下げさせるわけにはいかない面もあったな企業間持合いが多くて株価下落がB/S毀損直撃だったからね

持合いはかなり解消されて、企業は株価下落への耐性が強くなったが逆に言えば、国が株価を支えるモチベーションは薄くなったとも言える

18 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 09:01:43 ID:k5xlgTn9

みずほとかメガバンが一ヶ月に半値になった。
住金は40円、もう50円割れが倒産価格ってそんな株ばっかりだった。

四季報と日経会社情報を、結構でかい本屋に発売当日夜に買いに行ったらまだ倉庫にあった。
表に出されていない、っていうことより誰も買おうとしなかったのか、っていうことに衝撃を受けた。

19 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 09:32:43 ID:HCJeB+Vw

一番大きな違い

前回は10000で底じゃねという雰囲気があり、1度は12000まで跳ね返すこともあった
その後さがったけど、10000あたりですげえ底が硬い硬すぎるってな感じがあって、そこで、大勝負にでたやつが多かったと思う  → そこに、9.11現金もほとんどなく、その後なすすべがなかった

今回、(゚Д゚)ハァ?って思ってるまに、12000から10000、9000をあっさり割って、現金たっぷり。 そのせいか、投資金額が2/3になっても、現在、損をした~!!って実感あまりなし。 むしろ、なんとかして、ここで儲けようとギラギラ状態

前回みたいな本当に地獄になるとすれば、7000-8000あたりで一回底堅い様子をみせといてその後、そのラインをゆっくりと割り出し、さらに4000あたりまで下げが一気に加速、地銀の1つでも潰れたときじゃないかな

なんせ、現時点では、まともな企業は倒産してないからねぇ

43 :山師さん:2008/10/13(月) 18:15:19 ID:1cwbXlyS

今回は当事者意識が非常に薄いんだよね。
日本にも影響があるのは当然なんだが、問題発生は外国で、外国人が自分の都合で投売りせざるを得なくて、需給要因で極端に下がってる。
だから日本はそれほど問題ない…て感がぬぐえない。

日経平均7600円と今の違い2

1929年のような世界恐慌が起こらないことを切に願うばかり。
(下の動画は「NHKスペシャル 映像の世紀-第3集 それはマンハッタンから始まった」よりラスト。世界恐慌のシーン)

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22. posted by pof cant log in

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23. posted by can t login pof

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24. posted by pof won't let me log in

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25. posted by pof will not let me log in

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26. posted by pof password not working

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27. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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28. posted by plenty of fish login help

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29. posted by pof cant log in

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30. posted by can t login pof

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31. posted by pof won't let me log in

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32. posted by pof will not let me log in

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33. posted by pof password not working

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34. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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35. posted by pof cant log in

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36. posted by can t login pof

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37. posted by pof won't let me log in

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38. posted by pof will not let me log in

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39. posted by pof password not working

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40. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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41. posted by plenty of fish login help

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42. posted by pof cant log in

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43. posted by can t login pof

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44. posted by pof won't let me log in

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45. posted by pof will not let me log in

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46. posted by pof password not working

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47. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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48. posted by plenty of fish login help

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49. posted by pof cant log in

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50. posted by can t login pof

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51. posted by pof won't let me log in

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52. posted by pof will not let me log in

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53. posted by pof password not working

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54. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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55. posted by plenty of fish login help

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56. posted by pof cant log in

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57. posted by can t login pof

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58. posted by pof won't let me log in

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59. posted by pof will not let me log in

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60. posted by pof password not working

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61. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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62. posted by plenty of fish login help

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63. posted by pof cant log in

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64. posted by can t login pof

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65. posted by pof won't let me log in

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66. posted by pof will not let me log in

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67. posted by pof password not working

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68. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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69. posted by plenty of fish login help

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70. posted by pof cant log in

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71. posted by can t login pof

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72. posted by pof won't let me log in

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73. posted by pof will not let me log in

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74. posted by pof password not working

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75. posted by plenty of fish login problems

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76. posted by pof com login issues

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77. posted by plentyoffish.com login problems

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78. posted by cannot login to pof

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79. posted by log into plenty of fish with password

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